Reasons for Optimism (and Concern) in Latest Poll Numbers
With great opportunity comes great responsibility
According to a new poll conducted on behalf of the Washington Post and ABC News, the “generic congressional ballot” now favors Democrats by 14 points. A full 60% of Americans say that they would prefer that Democrats take control of Congress in November.
As ABC News explains:
The Democrats’ advantage reflects Trump’s broad unpopularity. As reported Friday, 36 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, the lowest approval rating for a president heading into his first midterms in polling dating to 1954. Next closest were Jimmy Carter’s 42 percent in 1978; Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at 46 percent in 2010 and 1994, respectively; and Ronald Reagan’s 48 percent in 1982.
Most of those are not good omens for the Republicans: The parties in control of the White House lost 63 House seats in Obama’s first midterms, 52 in Clinton’s and 26 in Reagan’s (but fewer, 15, in Carter’s). And in 2006, when the Democrats last held pre-election leads as high as theirs now, they gained 31 seats.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll shows the widest margin for Democrats since 2006, when Republicans lost majorities in both the House and Senate (click here for a more detailed polling breakdown from the Washington Post).
These are certainly encouraging numbers nationally, but on a state level Trump’s approval ratings can look much different. In fact, President Trump’s numbers are actually better in all but one of the states identified as top targets by Blue Impact Network (see chart).
Democrats could be in line for historical gains in Congress this November, but it won’t mean much if we don’t also pick up important seats that will ensure a fair redistricting process through 2030.
We need to elect candidates like Tom Wolf (Pennsylvania Governor), Andrew Gillum (Florida Governor), Kathleen Clyde (Ohio Secretary of State), and Jocelyn Benson (Michigan Secretary of State) to make sure that we aren't right back in the same place four years from now.
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